G2E 2026 Kicks Off With Pep Rally Against Prediction Markets
LAS VEGAS – This year’s Global Gaming Expo kicked off Monday, featuring a pep rally of sorts as commercial and tribal gaming leaders took to the stage to say their side is winning the battle against federally regulated prediction market operators when it comes to whether the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket can offer contracts on sporting events.
The prediction markets, backed by the Trump Administration, may have won the first few court cases since the federal government opened the door for those exchanges to enter the sporting realm more than 18 months ago. However, states and tribes, both of whom argue they hold the right to regulate gaming activity, have won more courtroom contests of late. Just last week, the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of the states, making it the second federal appellate court to agree with state and tribal leaders.
American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller referenced a Mike Tyson quote as he had the final word among the four panelists during the nearly hourlong event at The Venetian Expo.
“We got punched in the face early, and we might not have had the best plan early, but now they’re (prediction markets) on the run,” said Miller. “The only way we lose is we take our foot off their throat.”
G2E brings thousands of gaming leaders from around the world to the Las Vegas Strip to discuss some of the industry’s most pertinent issues. In the States, the battle with prediction markets over sporting events isn’t the only issue facing gambling companies, but it’s the one getting the most oxygen.
'Snakes' Present at G2E
Representatives from prediction market operators are also expected to attend the conference, which runs through Thursday. Though they’re not going to be welcomed with open arms.
“We’ll take their money, right, at the register?” Indian Gaming Association Executive Director Jason Giles said. “Just know there’s snakes out there, but we’re here, and we’re friends with you all.”
Monday’s session won’t be the only one at G2E regarding the fight with prediction markets. Miller is scheduled to sit on another panel Tuesday with Gwen Mills, the international union president of gaming labor organizer UNITE HERE; Rodney Tucker, chairman of the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation; and U.S. Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.). It’s also a lead-pipe lock Miller will use at least part of his time during Tuesday morning’s State of the Industry speech on the subject.
“They have absolutely tortured the commodities exchange it in a way that they’ve made a mockery of the institution,” Miller said Monday.
How The Battle with Prediction Markets Began
If you’re reading this, chances are you know how we this legal battle was born. Feel free to skip to the next section. For others, here’s a brief explanation of how we got here.
It began about this time two years ago, when Kalshi won a court battle allowing it to offer markets on the then-upcoming presidential election. Then, just a couple days after President Trump’s inauguration day for his second term, Kalshi announced it would offer contracts on sporting events that were nearly identical to wagers sportsbooks offered.
The CFTC’s leadership under the Trump Administration has gone all-in on allowing the prediction markets they regulate to offer such markets as point spreads, totals, moneylines and props that you’d see in a sportsbook. That includes the CFTC taking states to court that have sought to block Kalshi and others from offering such markets.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s oldest son, serves as an advisor to Kalshi and his venture capital firm has invested in Polymarket.
“They have absolutely tortured the commodities exchange it in a way that they’ve made a mockery of the institution.”
American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller on prediction markets
Prediction markets have been around for decades. Their purpose is to help generate information about commodities, other products and events that generate substantial economic interest, such as crop reports or the price of gold. Trading on these markets helps generate forecasts on those commodity futures.
It’s a two-sided market, meaning you either believe something will happen (such as the price of oil hitting $95 by the end of the week) or it won’t. For a person to buy contracts on their stated position, someone else must buy the opposite side.
The contracts are zero-sum, meaning the person who bought the winning side gets the full price of the contract, either $1 or $100. The person holding the losing end gets nothing. That said, prediction markets allow for live trading, meaning someone on the losing end can try to sell their contracts to cut their losses IF there’s a willing buyer.
For years, prediction markets shied away from anything gambling-related, although there had been at least one attempt at a sports-centric prediction market mostly to serve as a hedging vehicle for sportsbooks. The apprehension has been due to federal law requiring the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, to use a two-pronged test to determine whether a market’s offering is legal. One of those prongs is whether the proposed offering falls into any of five banned categories. That includes gaming or gambling.
States won the right to legalize sports betting more than eight years ago when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. In that time, 39 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico have legalized some form of sports betting. Those states establish regulations and tax operators they license.
Prediction markets offering sports contracts do not have to abide by state regulations. For example, federally regulated exchanges allow anyone 18 or older to participate. Nearly every state with legal sports betting sets the age for that activity at 21.
Both the states and the tribes, whose rights to regulate gaming are enshrined in federal law, claim that prediction markets offering sports markets undermine their regulatory efforts and threaten them financially, as prediction markets do not pay gaming taxes or provide revenue to tribes.
Tribes Feel Slighted in DC
With tribal gaming leaders making up most of Monday’s panel, panelists saw ironies in how the current administration is dealing with prediction markets compared to how the National Indian Gaming Commission has handled tribal gaming issues.
Holly Cook Macarro, a federal lobbyist representing tribal nations, pointed this out after she saw the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issue an advisory to prediction market operators regarding contracts they offer on public figures who mention certain words or phrases during speeches.
“Tribes get notices of violations from the NIGC, but the prediction markets get a gentle, ‘Hey, could you guys knock it off?’” she said.
Speaking of the NIGC, panelists also noted there is no one chairing the agency at this point. The last permanent chair was E. Sequoyah Simermeyer, who left in February 2024.
The commission's web page shows Vice Chairman William "Billy" Kirkland and Associate Commissioner Sharon M. Avery.
The Monday keynote at G2E in past years has been dedicated to tribal gaming issues, as it has usually taken place on or near Indigenous Peoples’ Day (also known as Columbus Day). This year’s conference is being held a week earlier than normal.
A Closing Thought
Yes, tribal and gaming industry leaders are correct that their side has won most of the legal battles so far. However, the sports leagues that sued New Jersey to stop it from offering sports betting won every time leading up to the Supreme Court, and we know what happened there.
New Jersey has already asked the Supreme Court to take up the prediction markets issue, and the nation’s top court may very well agree to hear arguments. However, the Supreme Court has had similar cases, such as ones involving the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act, and rather than take them on, the justices have sent them back for reconsideration.
So, for the time being, the fight between gaming leaders and regulators and prediction market operators will continue with no clear winner in sight.
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